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The Talking Heads

Kevin Raymond August 15, 2011 Freedom by Friday No Comments on The Talking Heads

They’re back. I haven’t turned on CNBC for months. For the most part the information you get on that network is old news. They do have good interviews of company CEO’s though, and that is why I decided to tune in. And, they’re a great contrarian indicator for someone like myself, who does trade stocks both long and short.

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One example of a talking head who’s really talking out of his you know what was an “observer” who the network turns to for “fund flows” and insider buying. He said “insiders are selling at very high levels, while few were buying”. That is as far from the truth as you can get.

One of my screens is devoted to real time insider filings and without a doubt buyers are buying at a much greater clip than sellers. And, they are buying in size. I have seen several million dollar buys by insiders in the past few days, a couple that I passed on to my readers.

Another talking head was all excited about rumors of a major French bank that was having a hard time accessing capital, only to be refuted a half hour later by the very same bank which announced they had met their capital requirements for 2011, four months early. And, then there are the bulls as well. CEO’s that come on just to pump up their shares by telling commentators that “we just missed our numbers, but stick with us, because things are going well”. Well, the real arbiter is their share prices, and within an hour of the CEO’s proclamation, the shares hit a new 52-week low.

There are problems with the economies and markets worldwide – no doubt about that. You don’t get zero interest rates unless there is a problem. Places like China and India are raising rates to slow growth  – a good problem to have and one that I wish the US was in the position to do.

The PIIGS, Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain are occupying the news again as their economies falter, something you have been reading about here for months. The Euro – well, I think it’s a piece of trash as far as a currency is concerned. And, I still recommend shorting it on any bounce. Think about it. They have more than a dozen separate and distinct countries and cultures in a monetary union, but not a fiscal union. This means there are occasions where one or more countries that are doing well have to bail out the countries that are not doing well – even if they have nothing in common with the other countries other than a currency.

The Germans are learning the hard way that they are the strong country and it’s their checkbook that is being drained. The Euro, like the US Dollar can be printed and that is the only salvation the union has. But, that does not bode well for the future of the currency… And at some point there might be a move by the stronger ones to jettison the weaker ones in order to preserve the currency. That is a real problem that global markets will have to deal with.

Gold is flying, breaking $1,800 per ounce. I can’t remember how many times I have written in these very pages that you should own the metal. If you have been buying, pat yourself on the back, you are up and up big. Gold is in the midst of a huge rally right now on the back of uncertainty and currency and interest rate movement. However, it has moved up too fast in the past couple of weeks and a correction should be expected, probably back to the $1,500 to $1,600 level. If it corrects any more than that, you should be buying more. It’s proven to be the best in class investment this decade.

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