Four days into early voting in Florida, 234,959 registered Republicans had already cast ballots in person. Democrats managed 210,883.

That's a 24,076-vote Republican lead before many counties have even opened their polls. Florida's mandatory statewide early-voting period doesn't begin until October 24.

Through the morning of October 22, the Florida Department of State counted 552,198 in-person early votes. Republicans cast 42.6% of them and Democrats 38.2%. Another 92,842 came from voters with no party affiliation, and 13,514 from minor-party voters.

Same-day turnout looks even better for Republicans. On Day 4 alone, registered Republicans made up 47.7% of in-person voters and Democrats 32.7%, a 15-point gap.

Democrats still lead in mail ballots, as they usually do. They've returned 484,785 mail ballots to Republicans' 405,970, a gap of 78,815. Counting mail and in-person votes together, Democrats lead 695,668 to 640,929, a margin of 54,739.

But mail ballots are votes Democrats spent years building a machine to bank early. In-person early voting shows who's showing up now, in the final stretch toward November 3, and that number is Republican and growing.

Florida was once the biggest swing state in America. Trump carried it by about 13 points in 2024, and these numbers suggest Florida Republicans haven't let up.

Out west, Arizona is shaping up to be a real fight, and Republicans are holding their own in the county that matters most.

Maricopa County, home to Phoenix and roughly 60% of the state's voters, has been ground zero for election fights since 2020. In the county's latest daily batch of returned early ballots, posted October 22, registered Republicans accounted for 38.9% of the 76,806 ballots, and registered Democrats for 37.3%.

Statewide, the race is nearly even. Of 656,180 early ballots returned so far, Democrats account for 255,884, or 39%, and Republicans 251,787, or 38%. That's a gap of about 4,100 ballots in a state of more than 7 million people. Another 148,509 ballots, 23%, came from independents and other voters who could swing the outcome either way. Maricopa County alone accounts for 383,527 of the ballots returned so far.

Democrats spent four years treating Arizona as theirs. They hold the governor's office and both U.S. Senate seats. Trump won it anyway in 2024, and the early numbers show Republicans are once again keeping pace in the one county Democrats can't win without.

Voters everywhere are turning out early. More than 13 million Americans had already voted at this point in the midterms, compared with about 9 million at the same point in 2022, according to the Associated Press. That's a jump of roughly 44%.

These numbers show the party registration of voters returning ballots, not how they voted, and nothing is final until the votes are counted. But they show where the energy is. In Florida, Republicans are outvoting Democrats in person by double digits on single days. In Arizona, they're running even statewide and winning daily batches in Maricopa.

Early voting in Florida runs through October 31, and all 67 counties will be open by October 24. Republicans' current in-person lead is 24,076 votes, and that number covers only the days before most of the state started voting.