On Tuesday, traders in Tehran were exchanging more than 2.5 million rials for a single U.S. dollar. That's a new record low. Twenty-seven days ago, the rial's previous record was 2.4 million to the dollar. Before the war started in February, it was 1.7 million.
That's a currency in free fall. And the people running Iran know exactly why.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has a name for what's happening: "Operation Economic Outcast." He told reporters the campaign "has caused the rial to hit record lows" and that his job now is straightforward — "to make sure that when they come with a deal, they want to stick to it." The Treasury sanctioned 10 additional individuals and entities this week, expanding sanctionable sectors to digital assets, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping. Iran's crude exports through the Strait of Hormuz have dropped to zero.
Bessent estimated the regime has roughly two weeks of crude shipments remaining. Two weeks.
President Trump, speaking Tuesday, put it the way only he can: "They're doing very poorly. I don't know if they're going to give up yet, but they will give up." He added that the U.S. has "took more oil out of the Hormuz Strait over the last couple of days than at any point in history" — while Iran moves none.
Now here's where the story gets genuinely remarkable. On the same day Iran's currency was setting records in the wrong direction, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps — the IRGC, Iran's military arm that funds and coordinates terrorist operations across the Middle East — published a 25-page open letter addressed to "the honorable people of the United States." IRGC spokesperson Hossein Mohebbi presented the letter, which urged Americans to "wake up" and "wrest control back from corrupt politicians." The timing was not subtle: five weeks before the U.S. midterm elections.
The letter called Trump an "inveterate liar" telling Americans "big lies" and declared that the Trump administration "must be changed." It claimed the nations of Iran and America are both "victims" of "corrupt politicians" and insisted, "We share the same pain."
One line stood out. The IRGC explained that their famous chant — "Death to America" — is actually "a prayer for the eradication of the diabolical ruling elite." So that clears that up.
The IRGC claimed Iran won the war, that American and Israeli bombs "failed to achieve any of their declared objectives," and told Americans that "now is the time, as the American political system is at its weakest." A terrorist army encouraging Americans to vote based on its preferred electoral outcome one day after the war hit its seven-month mark.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf have spent weeks trying to signal openness to negotiations while the IRGC simultaneously publishes campaign literature aimed at American voters. The regime can't decide whether it wants a deal or an election result. That's what happens when your currency loses 47 percent of its value in seven months and your oil revenue drops to zero — you try everything at once and none of it looks coherent.
The open-borders-and-diplomacy crowd will point out that sanctions hurt ordinary Iranians. They do. That's the point Bessent made when he said his goal is making sure Iran wants to stick to a deal when it finally comes to the table. Economic pressure works precisely because it's painful. The alternative — the previous administration's approach of releasing frozen funds and hoping for good behavior — produced a regime that felt flush enough to fund October 7th.
Trump's critics spent years calling maximum pressure a blunt instrument that would never produce results. The rial was at 1.7 million in February. It's at 2.5 million now. Iran's crude exports through the Strait sit at zero. Their own military is writing open letters begging Americans to vote differently.
