Chris Pappas has raised $14.6 million for his New Hampshire Senate campaign. His Republican opponent, John E. Sununu, has raised $4.1 million. And yet, a University of New Hampshire survey from late August showed Sununu leading Pappas 45% to 43%.
That's the kind of number that keeps Democrat strategists awake at 2 a.m.
Pappas — a sitting U.S. Representative running to replace retiring Democrat Senator Jeanne Shaheen — was supposed to be the safe pick. Blue-enough state, massive fundraising advantage, favorable name recognition from a D+2 district on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. The RealClearPolitics polling average still shows him ahead by 6.7 points. But anyone who watched 2024 knows what New Hampshire polling averages are actually worth. Kamala Harris polled 4.2 points ahead in the state that cycle. She won by 2.8.
New Hampshire polls overstate Democrats. That's not an opinion. It's a pattern.
The Sununu name doesn't hurt either. John E. Sununu's father, John H. Sununu, served as governor and White House Chief of Staff. His younger brother Chris Sununu just finished his run as governor with an approval rating near 60%. Kelly Ayotte, who won a Senate seat in 2010 and then lost to Democrat Maggie Hassan in 2016, came back and won the governor's race in 2024. The Republican bench in New Hampshire is deep, and voters know the family.
Sununu is running on "lower taxes, less regulation, and making government work again" — a platform that sounds almost retro in its simplicity, which is precisely why it works in a state where independent voters outnumber both parties. Pappas, meanwhile, has leaned into cost of living, public education, Medicaid, and Social Security while hammering Trump administration policies on tariffs, health care, and foreign affairs.
Here's where the math starts to betray the Democrat. Pappas's unfavorable rating jumped from 43% in June to 51% in August. An eight-point swing in unfavorables over two months for a candidate who's been in Congress since 2018 means voters aren't just learning about him — they're learning things they don't like.
The money race tells its own story. Pappas has outraised Sununu nearly four-to-one, but the cash-on-hand gap is a sliver: $3.84 million to $3.02 million. That suggests Pappas is burning through money at a rate that can't be sustained. And the cavalry has already arrived on the other side — GOP outside groups have spent $6.7 million on the race with another $25 million reserved. Democrats have spent $4.2 million with $15 million reserved. The spending gap is $10 million in Republican favor before a single additional dollar is committed.
Pappas's attack strategy — tying Sununu to Trump on tariffs and foreign policy — assumes New Hampshire voters view Trump as a liability. Republicans hold a 53-47 Senate majority precisely because that assumption keeps failing in competitive states. Democrats need to flip four GOP-held seats to take the chamber. Losing a seat they already hold would be catastrophic.
The state hasn't elected a Republican senator since Kelly Ayotte in 2010. Shaheen has held the seat since 2008. The conventional wisdom says New Hampshire has drifted too far blue for a Republican pickup.
Conventional wisdom also said Harris would win the state by four points. She won by 2.8, and that was with Trump on the ballot. November 3rd is three weeks away. Sununu's cash is close, his unfavorables are low, polls have historically undercounted Republicans support, and his opponent is climbing at a pace that ad money can't fix.
Sometimes $14.6 million just buys you a more expensive loss.
